Jazz vs. Mavericks prediction, odds: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 3 best bets from model on 86-56 run

The Utah Jazz host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 of a first round series in the 2022 NBA playoffs on Thursday. Utah won Game 1 in Dallas before dropping Game 2 on Monday. The teams are knotted at 1-1 as a result, with Game 3 providing a leg up in the series to the winner.

Luka Doncic (calf), Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) and Frank Ntilikina (illness) have been ruled out for Dallas. Trent Forrest (foot) and Udoka Azubuike (ankle) are out for Utah

Caesars Sportsbook lists Utah as a seven-point home favorite for this 9 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 210.5 in the latest Jazz vs. Mavericks odds.

Before you make any Mavericks vs. Jazz picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons.

The model enters the first full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-56 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Jazz, and just locked in its picks and NBA Playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavs vs. Jazz:

Getting Doncic back would be huge, but Dallas is excellent on defense, which gives the Mavs a chance either way. The Mavericks ranked near the top of the NBA in defensive rating during the regular season, allowing only 109.1 points per 100 possessions. Dallas also led the NBA in 3-pointers allowed (10.9 per game), with a top-five mark in 3-point accuracy allowed at 34.0 percent.

The Mavericks are facing a potent Jazz offense, but Dallas ranked in the top 10 of the league in free throw prevention, assist prevention and defensive rebound rate during the regular season. Utah has effective scorers, but the Jazz struggle to create easy looks through the pass, and the Mavericks are above-average in preventing fast break points.